20 March – “Cross-validation of structured expert judgment: data from 2006-2015” – Roger Cooke

Date: 20 March 2017
Time: 12:00pm
Location: Baker 129 Conference Room
Speaker: Roger Cooke
Topic: Cross-validation of structured expert judgment: data from 2006-2015

Abstract: 33 expert judgment studies using calibration variables from the experts’ field were contracted in the period 2006-2015, whereby experts quantify their uncertainty on variables from their field whose values are known post hoc, in addition to variables of interest. Using the cross-validation code developed in Eggstaff et al (2014), this data has been exhaustively cross validated. Results are presented comparing expert performance, and performance of equal weighting, harmonic weighting and performance based weighting. A recent publication is available at:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832017302090

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