Unexpected and Rapid Change

The problem:

Fig. 7: First prototype air capture system built by Stolaroff (left). Current capture system being built by co-investigator Keith at U. of Calgary (right).

Fig. 7: First prototype air capture system built by Stolaroff (left). Current capture system being built by co-investigator Keith at U. of Calgary (right).

At the rate the world is going, it is looking increasingly unlikely that we will be able to stabilize CO2 at an acceptable level simply be controlling emissions.  This has prompted a number of groups to begin to think seriously about scrubbing CO2 directly from the atmosphere.  Under previous NSF support, David Keith’s and Greg Lowry’s Carnegie Mellon Ph.D. student, Joshuah Stolaroff, did a first technical and economic assessment of air capture technology and also built a prototype air-contactor (Figure left).  Since then Keith has continued in Calgary with other support to explore and demonstrate this technology (Figure right).

The research:
While there is work in progress to develop and demonstrate the technology for air capture, to date there is still such large uncertainty about potential costs that many policy makers do not treat the technology seriously.  There is a pressing need to develop defensible bounds on cost estimates.  In addition there has been almost no systematic consideration of the broader systems and climate policy and decision issues raised by potential large-scale deployment of direct air capture.  Issues that require consideration include: an assessment of how rapidly such technology could be brought on line if it were needed (including a consideration of materials availability, cost and life-cycle); an examination of how much impact, over what time intervals, large-scale deployment could have on CO2 concentrations; an examination of the resource demands in terms of electric power and geological pore space, if sequestration is used or impacts of mineral extraction and product disposal, if solid methods are employed (e.g., with olivine); an examination of aesthetic issues raised by building large numbers of contactors  Analysis by Keith, Lowry, and colleagues will begin with simulation models and an engineering-economic assessment, some of it supported by other resources at U. Calgary.  The results will then be used to support decision analytic modeling and the application of real options.  In later stages of the work on lay group-decision making, we hope to be able to add this technology to the mix so as to also begin to gauge public perceptions.

The decision makers:
EPRI, IRGC, Peabody, Westinghouse