10 September – Modeling US Energy Futures Under Uncertainty

Date: 10 September 2018
Time: 12:00pm
Location: Baker Hall 129, Conference Room
Speaker: Joe DeCarolis
Topic: Modeling US Energy Futures Under Uncertainty

The planned US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement as well as uncertainty about federal climate policy has raised questions about the country’s future emissions trajectory. In this talk, I summarize a recent study that considers technoeconomic uncertainty in an energy system optimization model and projects future GHG emissions in the absence of new federal climate policy. Model results suggest that market forces are likely to keep US energy-related greenhouse gas emissions relatively flat or produce modest reductions: in the absence of new federal policy, 2040 greenhouse gas emissions range from +10% to −23% of the baseline estimate. Applying sensitivity techniques that extend beyond conventional scenario analysis can broaden future energy and emissions pathways, and could help inform subsequent policy efforts. Model source code and data are publicly archived to enable third party replication of our analysis. Moving forward, such modeling efforts could be enhanced with community involvement in model development and application. I will conclude the talk with some ideas for how to realize this vision.