20 April — Eliciting Improved Quantitative Judgements and Uncertainty From Experts For Decision Analysis (The IDEA Protocol)

Date: 20 April 2020
Time: 12:00pm
Location: via Zoom
Speaker: Dr. Victoria Hemming
Topic: Eliciting Improved Quantitative Judgements and Uncertainty From Experts For Decision Analysis (The IDEA Protocol)

Abstract: In this talk I will discuss the role of experts in decision analysis, and present my research on how to elicit more reliable quantitative judgements (with uncertainty) from experts using structured elicitation protocols. Key points include- identifying experts, framing questions (qualitative vs quantitative, point estimates vs uncertainty) working with groups, aggregation methods, and transparency. I will focus specifically on the IDEA protocol (Investigate, Discuss, Estimate, and Aggregate) as it represents a relatively simple protocol to apply and has been tested and shown to improve judgements. I will present evidence from two case studies- a risk assessment on the Great Barrier Reef, and Defence procurement decisions, to demonstrate how the protocol is applied, and the extent to which it improves judgements. Finally, using a case study on wildfire management I will show how these judgements are used in the decision analysis for the estimation of consequences and performing trade-off analyses. The tools and techniques discussed will give the audience a better understanding of the strengths and limitations of structured expert elicitation protocols and help those attending to better understand the role of expert judgement in decision analysis.