23 March — Quantification of drivers of natural catastrophe risk and appraisal of adaptation options to strengthen societal resilience
Date: 23 March 2022
Time: 12:00pm ET
Location: Wean Hall 3701 & via Zoom
Speaker: David Bresch
Topic: Quantification of drivers of natural catastrophe risk and appraisal of adaptation options to strengthen societal resilience
Abstract: Improving the resilience of our societies in the face of volatile weather and climate change is an urgent priority today and will increase in importance in the decades to come. The climate of the past is by no means sufficient a basis for decisions going forward any more. Never in history a society has known so much about the processes that shape its future and obtained a wealth of forward-looking weather and climate information – yet pre-emptive (and precautionary) action is not taking place as widespread as is it could be. Impact models such as the probabilistic modelling platform CLIMADA allow to quantify risk today, the incremental increase from economic development and the aggravation due to climate change. In the first part of the presentation, we will revisit recent findings and comment on the need for better interoperanbility of models in order to make progress in this field. While measures exist to adapt to an ever changing environment, decision makers on all levels need the facts to identify the most cost-effective instruments, they need to know the potential weather and climate-related damages over the coming decades, to identify measures to mitigate these risks – and to decide whether the benefits will outweigh the costs. The Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) methodology provides decision makers with a fact base to answer these questions in a systematic way. Starting from a comprehensive mapping of hazards and exposed assets, using state-of-the-art probabilistic risk modeling techniques (CLIMADA), it integrates different economic development and climate impact scenarios combined with a cost/benefit approach to assess a comprehensive portfolio of adaptation measures. In the second part of the talk, we will present select applications of the ECA methodology and comment on its applicability with a focus on how to deal with – and communicate – uncertainties.