5 March – Simple idealized models to understand basic properties of complex energy and economic systems
Date: 5 March 2018
Time: 12:00pm
Location: Baker 129 Conference Room
Speaker: Ken Caldeira
Topic: Simple idealized models to understand basic properties of complex energy and economic systems
Abstract: Models can range along a spectrum ranging from very realistic to highly idealized. Very realistic models have the advantage of fidelity to reality, but often contain many parameters and exhibit behaviors that are hard to understand. Idealized models lack the high degree of fidelity to reality, but contain few parameters and exhibit behaviors that are relatively easy to understand. We have been working at the end of the spectrum that involves investigating almost laughably simple models aimed at understanding basic principles underlying real energy and economic systems. Conclusions drawn from such models often seem obvious in retrospect. Examples to be discussed include whether nuclear power helps or hinders the penetration of intermittent renewables in a low-carbon energy system; how cheap electrochemical batteries would need to be to permit multi-day storage of electricity; and what would happen if poor countries developed along a business-as-usual pathway and only the rich countries decarbonized. Our goal is to help inform decisions made today, taking the long-term into account, by providing actionable information that is likely to be robustly true given the low degree of predictability of future technological and economic development.
