Choice of the mix of future electric power generation technologies

The problem:

Fig. 4: Examples of materials developed for use in lay decision support for choosing portfolios of low-carbon strategies and electricity generation technologies. Upper figures show individual information sheets. Lower figures show comparison sheets for costs and externalities.

Fig. 4: Examples of materials developed for use in lay decision support for choosing portfolios of low-carbon strategies and electricity generation technologies. Upper figures show individual information sheets. Lower figures show comparison sheets for costs and externalities.

It is now widely understood that a portfolio of strategies and technologies will be needed to achieve an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions from electric power generation by the middle or latter part of this century. What that mix should be is only in part a technical question. Since each of the strategies and technologies that might be adopted to reduce emissions is different, and has very different attributes, choice of the “best” mix is a decidedly normative process.  This is true even if cost minimization is the sole objective, since there is considerable uncertainty about future costs.  It becomes even more the case as one considers the many operating characteristics and externalities of the alternatives.  While power companies and PUCs will play a role in making such choices, it would also be highly desirable to involve NGOs and representatives of the general public.

The research:

With support from EPRI and CDMC, Ph.D. student Lauren Fleishman together with Wändi Bruine de Bruin (psychologist) and Morgan (engineer) are developing a decision aid for use by members of the general public that provides detailed multivariate information on the costs, performance and environmental externalities of each technology. To date the materials (Figure) have been successfully used in paper-based studies using methods similar to those previously developed at Carnegie Mellon for group risk ranking. Work is now underway to build an interactive computer-based tool suitable for use by lay individuals and groups. With support from the new Center we will:

  1. convert the current static tool focused on one-time expansion planning into a decision aid appropriate for ongoing dynamic planning with probabilistic cost and performance;
  2. perform a series of expert elicitations to obtain probabilistic values for future costs and performance;
  3. explore how best to display uncertain inputs and outputs for lay participants by developing a variety of alternative display methods and evaluated via systematic iterative psychometric studies of how individual lay participants interpret and understand the results; and
  4. run a series of workshops with lay participants, focused on the actual expansion problems faced by several real power systems.  EPRI has indicated they will continue to supply partial support for this work.

The decision makers:

A123, AEP, Audubon Society of Western PA (ASWPa), CAT, EPRI, IRGC, NRDC, PA PUC, Peabody, PJM, SAP, SustPgh, Westinghouse, World Resources Institute (WRI).